Thought Experiments

Twin Civilization Thought Experiment

Concept by Dr. Ron Martinson

What if two identical civilizations existed on opposite ends of the Milky Way, 100,000 light-years apart, and both civilizations developed radio technology near the same date?

This thought experiment uses that scenario to reveal something stunning about the Fermi Paradox: the silence we hear from space may be because we are simply too far away in space and time to monitor any signals.

New scientific observations suggest life forms as soon as conditions allow, meaning we are not early or late to civilization; we are “average”.

If we were late to develop, and other civilizations developed in our galaxy considerably earlier than we did,

then we SHOULD see more radio signals, but we do not.

And if the other potential civilizations are “average” too, the math of a 100,000 light-year galaxy explains the silence.

Are We Just Too Early? This is a thought experiment that also helps us understand the size and scope of our own Milky Way.

As a result, this thought experiment predicts a bloom of communication from inside the Milky Way in about 50,000 years when more than half of the viable planets in the galaxy would hypothetically start using radio technology.

This is a thought experiment and takes MANY assumptions in order to work.

This is not meant to be a hypothesis, although a prediction is built into the thought experiment.

There is no known law of civilizational development we could be aware of; equal civilizations may develop unequally, and chance may play an important factor.

This thought experiment also assumes radio technology is a requirement or feature of an advanced civilization.

As is, humans have an extremely limited relationship with radio technology, only developed theoretically in 1865.

Radio may also only be known as a primitive technology.